Open Letter To The Medford, Oregon School Board

Today, I had an anxiety-driven deep discussion with my adult daughter about the challenges our local school district faces in determining when and how to reopen the elementary school my three grandchildren attend. My grandkids and their parents live on our eight acre hobby farm, and we’ve all been isolating together for months — our discipline is high and our sanitation routines are rigorous.

But now, we’re faced with the prospect of school starting back up in September, on one basis or another, and our well-established and practiced routines being disrupted yet again; and our health, that of the children and adults, back at risk. Is it worth it at this particular moment? I don’t think so.

I know that kids need both social interaction and play as well as face-to-face learning, and that many rely on school lunches for nutrition. And I’m aware that the American Academy of Pediatricians has recently released guidelines that conclude that the benefits of reopening our schools outweigh the risks. But I’m just not buying it, and I have my reasons — which I intend to explore in this post.

My concerns around reopening our schools center around the uncertainty and lack of data that surrounds this momentous decision. My two demands are that our decision makers, in this case the Medford School Board, take their decision after ample public input; and, base their decision on the best science available to them at the time. I think those are reasonable preconditions to impose on the process.

So here’s the thing: we don’t yet know, we just don’t have enough quality data, to determine exactly what the effects of reopening our schools will be. We have some pretty good notions, but no peer-reviewed and verified hard science. Furthermore, we are still collecting valuable data that will inform our understanding of this disease and its effects on victims, and we won’t have that process completed by September — that’s for sure. So let’s establish that undeniable fact right now: we simply do not have enough data yet to make a thoroughly informed decision on the matter.

A very recent article in the academic journal “Science” explains:

“Data about the outcomes are scarce. “I just find it so frustrating,” says Kathryn Edwards, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine who is advising the Nashville school system, which serves more than 86,000 students, on how to reopen. Her research assistant spent 30 hours hunting for data — for example on whether younger students are less adept at spreading the virus than older ones, and whether outbreaks followed reopenings — and found little that addressed the risk of contagion in schools.”

Where does that leave us? Well, we can look at ‘experience’ and anecdotal evidence to get a ‘sense’ of the potentials. We can also consult Administration estimates. For example, Betsy DeVos, the Secretary of Education, estimated that approximately 0.02 percent of students in the USA may die once schools open. Well, that’s approximately 14,400 kids we’re talking about.

We have a lot of children in the country’s education system, and just under 15,000 may sound like a small number. But I guarantee it’s not if one of those kids is yours, or your grandchild, or your niece or nephew or cousin. And listen, that number does not include the children that will require hospitalization (presumably a lot higher number) and those who will survive but be permanently impacted by the disease — with things like chronic heart or lung problems, lethargy and cognitive dysfunction.

Let’s look at some actual experiential evidence from Israel. A recent Daily Beast article explains: “Israel’s unchecked resurgence of COVID-19 was propelled by the abrupt May 17 decision to reopen all schools, medical and public-health officials have told The Daily Beast.”

The article continues: “On June 3, two weeks after schools opened, more than 244 students and staff were found to test positive for COVID-19. According to the education ministry, 2,026 students, teachers, and staff have contracted COVID-19, and 28,147 are in quarantine due to possible contagion.”

A leading Israeli epidemiologist concluded: “Whatever else we say, the fact is that schools were not prepared to take students back under the necessary conditions to contain the epidemic.

The reopening happened too fast. It was undertaken so quickly that it triggered a very sharp spike…”

But what about here, in the USA? In Arizona, three teachers shared a summer school classroom. They all got Covid-19 and one died. Is this really what we want for our teachers? The previously referenced Science article notes that: “Because children so rarely develop severe symptoms, experts have cautioned that open schools might pose a much greater risk to teachers, family members, and the wider community than to students themselves.”

How about Florida? According to a July 15th article in “The Hill,” almost one-third of Florida Children have tested positive for the virus at this point. That’s right, one-third. But that’s not the scary part. Here’s what the article had to say:

Florida health officials have identified a troubling trend; approximately 31 percent, or one-third, of children in Florida tested for COVID-19 yield positive results, according to the Sun Sentinel.

State data indicates that out of 54,022 Florida children tested, 31.1 percent have returned positive results on average. This is higher than the statewide positivity rate, which reads in at about 11 percent.

Aside from the staggering figure indicating the transmission of the virus, health experts fear it can cause potential lifelong damage in children. Alina Alonso, the health department director of Palm Beach County, reportedly told county commissioners on Tuesday that the long-term consequences of Coronavirus in children are unknown.

What about the money? Reopening schools in a manner that is safe for students and staff is going to require additional financial and human resources. Classrooms must be regularly scrubbed and disinfected. Quantity purchases of masks and hand sanitizer must be approved. Additional testing and tracing resources should also be in place. And all of this costs money at a time when many school districts are strapped for cash. How will that play out? The Associated Press, in an article posted on July 15th, noted that:

“Keeping public schools for 50 million students and more than 7 million staff safe from the Coronavirus could require more teachers and substitutes, nurses and custodians. School districts will need to find more buses to allow for more space between children and buy more computers for distance learning. They’ll need to buy sanitizer, masks and other protective equipment. Some are putting up plastic dividers in offices and classrooms.”

How much is it going to cost nationwide? In the article cited above, “The Council of Chief State School Officers says safely reopening public schools could cost between $158 billion and $245 billion…” Currently, those funds have not been appropriated.

A serious question for the Medford School Board: Aside from all the health and logistics issues involved, should we really be considering reopening our schools before we know if we’ll have the financial resources to do all we need to do to ensure the safety of our kids, teachers and ancillary staff? We don’t want to find ourselves in the position of the Bibb County Board of Education in Georgia where, according to chief-of-staff Keith Simmons, “We’ve calculated the cost based on what we think we can afford, not based on what we need…”

Given the lack of data, the negative experiences in Israel, Arizona, Florida and elsewhere, the toll reopening will take on teachers and on district finances; and finally, given the known public health risks: there is simply no logically justifiable reason to reopen Medford schools in September. Maybe, if the stars align, a vaccine is developed, and effective medical interventions for those who are already sick are widely available, we can consider a total reopen. But not now!

Finally, there’s a reason my daughter came to me — beyond the fact that I am her father. In decades past, I was an RN; a healthcare administrator, and a health science educator. More recently, I served for three years on the board of directors of the local Federally Qualified Health Care (FQHC) system, a multi-clinic regional provider; and twice that long on the board of a regional non-profit clinic system with multiple sites. Further, I’ve been writing about this pandemic, contributing this post to Medium just before we locked-down the region and closed our schools in March; and then this post, that resulted in AARP correcting a privacy issue with their Covid-19 volunteer program.