Let’s Talk About Artificial Intelligence — It’s Time
Everybody is talking about AI; scientists, columnists, podcasters, pundits and pols. It’s a subject that is on everyone’s lips as the serious AI arms race has begun. And it has done so largely in the absence of government oversight and regulation. Pair that with the fact that it is happening a lot faster than anyone predicted, even Google, and the need to have a serious conversation about what it all means becomes evident. If you’re not curious, or better yet concerned, you’re not paying attention.
The AI revolution has been called a lot of things; the new industrial revolution, the most important scientific advance in centuries, the next great thing, and by some, an existential threat to society as we know it. One thing I can tell you, it’s here to stay and will soon impact all of our lives in one way or another — and there are both positive and negative potentials.
Artificial intelligence, AI, is often defined as machine, computational, or digital intelligence. That is a digital network or device that has been trained to ‘think’ like a human by processing natural language prompts, conducting its own research, reflecting internally on what its research uncovered, and then producing original, meaningful and cogent output based on the prompt. In other words, ask an AI a question and it will engage you in an informational conversation and provide deep and comprehensive answers and context to your inquiry.
We are well into the age of AI, moving much more quickly than expected toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) — which is defined as being as smart and capable of logic and deduction as a human. Most experts just a year or so ago expected it to take ten years plus to get to AGI, but recent developments put us almost there — now (there’s actually a benchmark, massive multitasking language understanding [MMLU], we can use to measure AI’s progression to AGI). More about that in a future post. But the state that many experts and academics, including AI experts are most concerned about is artificial self-improving intelligence (ASI), as this is the moment when our machines could actually surpass, far surpass, human capabilities. The ‘singularity’ as it is sometimes dubbed. When we reach this moment, and it’s when, not if; things will happen very quickly and the consequences may be out of our control. That’s why having these kinds of conversations now is so important, there is an implied existential threat involved.
Here’s what long-time tech journalist and former sr. editor at The Verge Casey Newton said about AI in his “Platformer” blog: “Artificial intelligence promises to bring powerful advances in productivity and creativity. But it also poses serious and potentially existential risks to life as we know it. My coverage of AI is rooted in the belief that fears of massive disruption may be justified, and require urgent attention.”
Beyond the risks, including putting powerful tools in the hands of bad actors with mal intent; there is another 800 pound gorilla in the room. AI/AGI will have, like Newton said, a profound impact on virtually every aspect of our lives and society.
For example, combined with robotics and automation, AI will change the face of the labor market and the nature of work itself. We’ve always known robotics and automation will take factory floor and warehouse jobs, but AGI will take many high-level professional jobs as the way we do law, accounting, medicine, architecture, software, research and education are impacted by these powerful new tools. That’s right, professionals like lawyers, accountants, architects, software developers and doctors will see massive changes in the way they work — and some will find themselves needing to re-train at best, or retire at worst. That’s why some pundits have written that AI’s impact will mirror or even surpass that of the printing press and the industrial revolution. It’s going to change a lot of things in short order.
These changes will inevitably mean the one percent, corporate giants and their shareholders, will see their profits expand while their workforces shrink. To avoid a revolutionary backlash, there must be accommodations for the disruptions in the labor market. There must be an equitable redistribution of income through a minimum basic income (MBI) program. And society will need to adapt to many new realities, changing to accommodate the new normal that AI will bring. A lot of what we’re used to is now suddenly obsolete. Think about that when you’re preparing your children and grandchildren for what promises to be an unrecognizable future, not only due to AI, but the myriad challenges the Earth and its human and animal populations face.
The short video below, produced by The Economist Magazine, explores some of the risks involved and asks: How to Stop AI From Going Rogue?
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ANn9ibNo9SQ&feature=share
So I know that’s a lot to think about, but there’s the other side of the coin to consider to be fair. I’m talking about the truly massive benefits to be reaped from this powerful new technology, if we can focus on the positive and avoid the pitfalls. New drugs; a much increased rate of scientific discovery and advance; better designed products; life extension; enhanced decision support systems; the list goes on-and-on. These benefits will not be small or incremental, as usual with most forward progress, they will instead come hard and heavy — challenging our abilities to absorb and adapt. So there’s lots of good AND bad to look forward to. It’s going to be a wild ride. Will you be ready?
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